Thematic Research: Shockwaves from Tehran: The Iran war and the future of European security

Research evidence excerpt

Thematic Research: Shockwaves from Tehran: The Iran war and the future of European security

12 May 2026

Thematic Research

How the Middle East crisis impacts the Russia-Ukraine calculus

n Europe’s ability to sustain its military commitments to Ukraine is coming

under pressure even after recently securing the landmark €90bn EUR

Ukraine loan facility. Reports indicate that key US weapons systems are

being diverted from delivery to Ukraine and other European customers to

replenish US stockpiles.

n The diversion of weapons and diplomatic attention from Ukraine may

become a serious problem in the second half of 2026, primarily due to

constraint on air defence interceptors. Analysts estimate that the US fired

over 1,000 Pac-3 Patriot missiles in the first 39 days of Operation Epic Fury,

compared to a total annual production of 600. In addition, the US may have

used up to one-third of its stockpile of Tomahawk cruise missiles. This could

lead to delays in the delivery of weaponry through NATO’s Prioritised

Ukraine Requirements List. European governments are redoubling efforts

to manufacture Patriot interceptors in Europe and scale up home-grown

alternatives like the SAMP/T.

n These longer-term solutions cannot immediately address the readiness

gap emerging in 2026/2027, and European militaries currently lack a direct

replacement for the Tomahawk cruise missile for long-range fires. Where

no clear home-grown substitute is available at scale, this could begin to

undermine European countries’ efforts to deter Russia and support

Ukraine’s defence.

Does Europe have the resources to meet the moment?

n The political conditions appear to be gathering for a sustained push to

advance strategic autonomy. European governments would need to build