Outokumpu: Q1 review - not at full strength yet but FCF solid

Research evidence excerpt

Outokumpu: Q1 review - not at full strength yet but FCF solid

Deutsche Bank

Research

Rating Company Date

Hold Outokumpu 12 May 2026

Forecast Change

Europe

Finland

Reuters Bloomberg Exchange Ticker Price at 11 May 2026 (EUR) 5.64

OUT1V.HE OUT1V FH HEX OUT1V

Price Target (EUR) 5.20

Metals & Mining

ADR ISIN 52-week range (EUR) 5.98 - 3.28

OUTKY US69011W1018

Q1 review - not at full strength yet but

Valuation & Risks FCF solid

Bastian Synagowitz

Tailwinds support, strategic decisions under review - Hold Research Analyst

Outokumpu reported Q1 numbers and adjusted EBITDA of E65m was slightly softer +41-44-227-3377

vs. expectations (DBe E74m vs. cons. E71m). This was driven by weaker European

Liam Fitzpatrick

performance as a result of the processing of lower margin orders from the previous Research Analyst

quarter due to the ERP rollout and management flagged that this parts of this could +44-20-754-13233

be dragged into to Q2. However, cash flow was very strong supported by an

impressive WC performance. We did minor changes to our estimates and improved Key changes

cash flow estimates takes our PT to E5.2 (from E5.0). We continue to believe that TP 5.00 to 5.20 ↑ 4.0%

Outokumpu's best-in-class CO2 profile in Europe positions the company well for Source: Deutsche Bank

the possible implementation of CBAM. In addition, the company is highly levered

to a possible market rebound, which could be supported by the planned step-up in

EU trade protection. However, Outokumpu is also challenged by possible policy

changes by the local Finnish government and, together with planned restructuring

measures, this weighs on cash conversion. Strategically, Outokumpu has the

ambition to step up its investments to grow and expand into niche grades, and