STEEL : Marketing Feedback - Still liked, well held

Research evidence excerpt

STEEL : Marketing Feedback - Still liked, well held

EQUITIES

METALS & MINING

STEEL

FLASH NOTE

Marketing Feedback – Still liked, well held

22 MAY 2026 Sector Research Report Production time: 05:52* (London time)

Research Analyst & Publishing Entities

Tristan Gresser BNP Paribas SA +33 6 85 93 39 39 tristan.gresser@bnpparibas.com

What happened?

We spent the past week on the road, meeting with investors across Europe.

BNP Paribas View: Compared with a year ago, the shift in investors’ positioning is almost night-and-day. Initially highly

skeptical of the emerging Steel Action Plan, nearly every investor we talked to now holds at least one EU carbon steel

name and many own two. We found that a few even managed to increase their exposure after the late Q1 correction.

Company wise, top picks vary by region, but our preference for carbon over stainless steel is broadly shared.

This is unusual. But this surge of confidence took place despite a weakening demand backdrop. We had expected

some long only investors to have already taken profits, yet we found little evidence of that. That is not to say there are

no lingering concerns. Inventory overhang, capacity restarts, cost inflation and soft demand all remain on the radar.

Yet, the prevailing sentiment is that it would be a mistake to reduce exposure just as the July quota implementation

looms. Especially as EU carbon steel does not scream expensive.

– ArcelorMittal (+): The steelmaker remains a favourite across all types of investors. Most see positively the partial

sale of the Vallourec stake and welcome the return of buyback activity. Yet, few are necessarily aware of the

scale of the potential mark-to-market pricing upside ex-Europe (which notably underpins our above consensus

forecasts).