AGI Inc: Risk Reward Update

Research evidence excerpt

AGI Inc: Risk Reward Update

tive

Key: Historical Stock Performance Current Stock Price Price Target View descriptions of Risk Rewards Themes here

Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

BULL CASE US$25.00 BASE CASE US$17.00 BEAR CASE US$6.50

Sustainable low rates & successful cross Secular tailwinds & market share gains Regulatory headwinds & tougher

selling competition

Secular tailwinds from favorable

Successful structural reforms improve demographics and INSS benefit adjustments, Macro outlook deteriorates and rate cuts

public finances and strengthen long‑term combined with a gradual rate‑easing cycle, are delayed or shallow, keeping payroll loan

support for the INSS system, driving faster support steady growth in payroll loan origination and portability volumes subdued.

benefit growth and higher loan demand. originations and portability. Continued Failure to advance fiscal reforms strains

Improved fiscal discipline enables scaling of the Smart Hub network drives public finances and limits INSS support,

sustainably lower interest rates, accelerating new clients and share gains in INSS payroll weighing on benefit growth and loan

payroll loan origination and portability. loans, while cross‑selling new products into demand, while adverse regulatory changes

Agibank leverages its expanding Smart Hub a growing customer base supports pressure profitability. At the same time,

network and growing customer base to incremental revenue growth. Cost of risk tougher competition and

deepen cross‑selling, significantly improving remains under control and has room to slower‑than‑expected scaling of

client monetization and accelerating top‑line normalize long-term at lower levels. cross‑selling and Smart Hub expansion

growth. constrain market share gains and margins.