HSBC Holdings: A Pathway to 20% ROTE

Research evidence excerpt

HSBC Holdings: A Pathway to 20% ROTE

Idea

May 12, 2026 09:00 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley Asia (Singapore) Pte.+MHSBC Holdings | Asia Pacific Nick Lord

Equity Analyst

A Pathway to 20% ROTE Nick.Lord@morganstanley.comMorgan Stanley Europe S.E., Madrid Branch+ +65 6834-6746

Alvaro Serrano

What’s Changed Equity Analyst

HSBC Holdings (0005.HK) From To Alvaro.Serrano@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-6942

Price Target HK$150.50 HK$155.20

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+

Almario Sulaj

Research AssociateWe review HSBC's medium term earnings power and conclude

Almario.Sulaj@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-2049

that a combination of stronger loan growth, Wealth and room

to increase efficiency puts 20% ROTE in play medium term. We Morgan Stanley Asia (Singapore) Pte.+ Aitong Li

Research Associateremain Overweight on 0005.HK.

Aitong.Li@morganstanley.com +65 6834-6295

Revenue momentum is picking up across our coverage. The AI driven capex cycle

HSBC Holdings (0005.HK, 5 HK)

is keeping economies more resilient than expected, and driving a recovery in loan

Hong Kong Financials | Hong Kong

growth and strong capital markets activity. In the case of HSBC this is compounded

Stock Rating Overweight

by an improvement in the outlook in China and the bottoming of HK CRE. Our base Industry View In-Line

case assumes the Middle East conflict slows down activity, but if the current Price target HK$155.20

Up/downside to price target (%) 12

momentum holds, we see upside to revenues above the company's guidance and Shr price, close (May 12, 2026) HK$138.60

consensus. 52-Week Range HK$148.00-87.65

Sh out, dil, curr (mn) 17,294

Mkt cap, curr (mn) US$306,170

Loan growth to support NII from here. With the curve having now priced out Avg daily trading value (mn) HK$1,844