HSBC/StanChart: Expecting stronger revenues – lifting ests, PTs

Research evidence excerpt

HSBC/StanChart: Expecting stronger revenues – lifting ests, PTs

Equity Research

22 July 2026

HSBC/StanChart

Expecting stronger revenues –

lifting ests, PTs

We expect strong 2Q results and potential FY guidance European Banks

upgrades, driven by continued NII strength. While China POSITIVE Unchanged

outbound investment tightening and restart of Middle East European Banks

Aman Rakkar, CFAtensions are overhangs, we see risks as contained. We raise

estimates and PTs, remain constructive, with slight +44aman.rakkar@barclays.com(0)20 3555 1425

preference for HSBC. Barclays, UK

We look for strong revenues at both banks, and scope for FY guidance upgrades, driven by

ongoing NII upside. China outbound investment tightening is a key overhang, alongside

the re-emergence of the Middle East conflict, but unlikely to de-rail outlooks, in our view.

We lift estimates and PTs, and remain constructive on the space, liking both banks, but

retaining our slight preference for HSBC on what we see as greater scope for EPS estimate

upside.

Stronger revenues: Our 2Q estimates are above consensus for both banks, driven by

expectations of strong revenue performance. Fee income should benefit from robust capital

markets activity, while Wealth Management continues to enjoy strong underlying momentum

and support from higher market levels, with limited evidence so far of any meaningful impact

from China's tightening of outbound investment (as discussed previously). Given our

expectations for stronger NII, we see scope for both banks to increase FY26 revenue guidance.

Steady credit: The re-escalation of Middle East tensions and potential 'tall tree

exposures'somewhat cloud the credit backdrop. However, we ultimately expect impairments to