MS Food: Trends in All-Channel US Scanner Data Through 5/2

Research evidence excerpt

MS Food: Trends in All-Channel US Scanner Data Through 5/2

Update

May 12, 2026 11:30 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLCMMS Food | North America Megan Alexander Clapp, CFA

Equity Analyst

Trends in All-Channel US Megan.A.Clapp@morganstanley.comDarryl Scott Butler Jr +1 212 761-3715

Research Associate

Darryl.Butler.Jr@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-0672

Scanner Data Through 5/2

Packaged Foods

North America

Key Takeaways Industry View In-Line

Food scanner y/y sales growth trends in the latest 4-wk period were weaker

sequentially, with Easter timing hurting L4W vs. no impact to L12W in total.

Of the added 2 wks, sales were strong in the first new week cycling the post-

Easter de-load; the most recent week was more muted (+1% on avg).

Dispersion is wide by company in the most recent week: HSY/MDLZ strong at

+MSD%, SJM solid at +LSD%, GIS/CPB/KHC/CAG relatively weaker (flattish on

avg).

HSY trends particularly encouraging with everyday chocolate rebounding to

~HSD% y/y in the most recent week of data.

Scanner trends and shipment timing dynamics suggest OSG downside risk for

upcoming off-cycle reporters CPB, CAG, and GIS.

Below, we are enclosing Nielsen's All Measured Outlets data for the 4 weeks ended

5/2/26 as well as weekly data, notable company-specific observations, our

proprietary inflection tracker, and QTD scanner sales vs. consensus estimates.

Overall, large-cap food sales were down -2.7% (-1.5% 2-yr) in all-channel Nielsen

scanner data for the 4-wks ended 5/2/2026, which was well below the -0.6%

decrease in the latest 12-wks (-1.2% 2-yr). Weekly data continues to be impacted

by Easter timing (4/5 this year vs. 4/20 last year), which hurt the L4W, benefitted

the prior 4W period, with no impact for the L12W in total.