Mazda Motor: F3/26 Results: F3/27 Guidance Assumes 8% YoY Growth in Consolidated Shipments, Driven by New-model CX-5 Launch

Research evidence excerpt

Mazda Motor: F3/26 Results: F3/27 Guidance Assumes 8% YoY Growth in Consolidated Shipments, Driven by New-model CX-5 Launch

Update

May 12, 2026 10:18 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co., Ltd.+MMazda Motor (7261) | Japan Hiroto Segawa

Equity Analyst

F3/26 Results: F3/27 Guidance Hiroto.Segawa@morganstanleymufg.comShinji Kakiuchi +81 3 6836-8403

Shinji.Kakiuchi@morganstanleymufg.com +81 3 6836-5416

Assumes 8% YoY Growth in Hayato Takashima

Research Associate

Hayato.Takashima@morganstanleymufg.com +81 3 6836-5414

Consolidated Shipments, Driven

Mazda Motor (7261.T, 7261 JP)

Autos & Shared Mobility | Japanby New-model CX-5 Launch

Stock Rating Equal-weight

Industry View In-Line

Price target ¥1,200

Reaction to earnings Shr price, close (May 12, 2026) ¥1,035

Mkt cap, curr, basic (bn) ¥652.5

Unchanged Meaningful upside Modest revision higher Avg daily trading value (bn) ¥8.1

Impact to our thesis Financial results versus consensus Direction of next 12-month

consensus EPS

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research

Key Takeaways

Mildly positive impression. While F3/26 OP was slightly below consensus after

excluding one-time factors, F3/27 OP guidance is ahead of market expectations.

However, the FX assumptions behind F3/27 guidance are not necessarily

conservative, and volume assumptions look ambitious, so we would not rule out

possible risk of a shortfall.

Mazda's F3/27 annual dividend plan is ¥55/share (flat YoY). Based on today's

close, the dividend yield is more than 5%, which is likely to provide downside

share price support.

We think F3/27 earnings will hinge on sales trends for the mainstay CX-5 SUV, as

well as factors such as potential higher materials costs resulting from the

situation in the Middle East and cost-improvement measures.