Mazda Motor (7261) 4Q results: Guidance seems somewhat aspirational, but view the ambition positively

Research evidence excerpt

Mazda Motor (7261) 4Q results: Guidance seems somewhat aspirational, but view the ambition positively

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research

12 May 2026

Mazda Motor (7261) Neutral

7261.T, 7261 JP

4Q results: Guidance seems somewhat aspirational, Price (12 May 26):¥1,035

but view the ambition positively Price Target (Dec-26):¥1,100

Slightly positive: Mazda Motor’s FY2026 operating profit guidance is ¥150.0 Japan Equity Research

billion, far above our estimate. The company aims to increase retail sales by

Autos & Auto Parts

roughly 100,000 units YoY, mainly driven by the expanded sales of the new CX-5

and BEVs developed in collaboration with Changan Automobile. The guidance Akira Kishimoto AC

does not clearly factor in any sales impact from the situation in the Middle East, (81-3) 6736-8646

akira.x.kishimoto@jpmorgan.com

and it appears somewhat optimistic to target a large volume increase while keeping

Wencong Zhang

incentives in check. Still, we take a positive view of the company’s willingness to (81-3) 6736-8627

pursue growth. We will need to scrutinize the competitiveness of the CX-5, the wencong.zhang@jpmorgan.com

acceptance of the BEV lineup in non-US markets, and the implications for mix. JPMorgan Securities Japan Co., Ltd.

• Guidance seems somewhat optimistic, but signals a strong commitment:

Mazda’s FY2025 operating profit came in at ¥51.6 billion, beating our estimate

(¥39.3 billion). FX tailwinds and cost-reduction efforts contributed to a solid

outcome. FY2026 guidance calls for operating profit of ¥150.0 billion, well

above both our estimate (¥108.1 billion) and the Bloomberg consensus

estimate (¥121.0 billion). The company projects global retail sales volume to

be 1,324,000 units (+102,000 units YoY), with it targeting substantial increases