ASEAN Telecoms and Media: Thailand – Rational Duopoly

Research evidence excerpt

ASEAN Telecoms and Media: Thailand – Rational Duopoly

Idea

May 12, 2026 09:02 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley Asia (Singapore) Pte.+MASEAN Telecoms and Media | Asia Pacific Da Wei Lee

Equity Analyst

Thailand – Rational Duopoly Dawei.Lee@morganstanley.com +65 6834-6510

ASEAN Telecoms and Media

Asia Pacific

What’s Changed Industry View In-Line

True Corporation PCL (TRUE.BK) From To

Price Target Bt15.80 Bt19.30

AIS and TRUE offer different, complementary paths to value

creation. We see AIS as a high‑quality cash generator, with

dependable yield and underappreciated optionality in data

centers, enterprise, and digital adjacencies. We see TRUE

improving profitability, deleveraging, and growing the dividend.

Key Takeaways

Thailand: A rational two‑player market with limited price competition, rising

ARPU, improving ROIC, and disciplined capex underpins sustainable cash

generation.

AIS: quality yield with growth optionality; ~5% div. yield and >7% FCF yield

(FY27e), while offering underappreciated upside from DCs and digital adjacencies.

TRUE: earnings growth plus deleveraging; earnings driven by margin uplift and

and balance‑sheet repair, enabling faster DPS growth and rerating potential.

Two different paths to value creation: AIS offers a lower‑risk, income‑led total

return profile, while TRUE offers higher DPS growth and multiple expansion.

Duopoly market structure a rare find. We see a rational two‑player market with

limited price competition, strong focus on ARPU quality, margins, and cash flow and

disciplined capex. This underpins sustainable dividends at AIS and recovering

profitability at TRUE. The key risk, in our view, is potential deterioration in consumer

spending due to the energy shock.

AIS: Steady cash cow and Thailand AI data center (DC) upside. We project 3-year