Greater China Semiconductors: Raising RF semi PTs on new business, share gains

Research evidence excerpt

Greater China Semiconductors: Raising RF semi PTs on new business, share gains

IdeaM

WIN Semi and AWSC seeing better-than-smartphone

industry growth; AI/datacenter revenue still limited

WIN Semi should benefit from newer businesses such as AI datacenter

and satellite, but expectations for InP business are excessive, in our

view.

We are seeing stronger demand and development for WIN Semi from newer

businesses such as AI datacenter, optical, and satellite, leading to 60-70% UTR in 1H26 vs.

half a year ago, better than our initial expectation. Against this backdrop, we raise our

earnings estimates and PT for WIN Semi and expect the company to expand both capacity

and UTR in the coming years to fulfill potentially fast-growing demand. The company has

also guided 2026 capex to be above NT$2bn for InP and GaN capacity expansion.

However, we remain cautious on WIN Semi amid high expectations from investors;

stay UW: We believe expectations for WIN Semi's InP (Indium Phosphide) business are too

bullish, as AI datacenter still only accounts for mid-single digits % of revenue.

WIN Semi’s satellite-related business could account for mid teens % of 2026 revenue:

We expect WIN Semi’s satellite-related business to emerge as the company’s primary

growth driver in 2026, supported by increasing demand for satellite communications

infrastructure and continued expansion of low-earth-orbit (LEO) satellite deployments. As

global satellite operators accelerate network rollouts, WIN Semi appears well positioned

to benefit from rising RF front-end content and higher GaAs wafer demand, particularly in

power amplifiers and related high-frequency applications. We believe satellite will

contribute a meaningfully larger portion of revenue in 2026 (around mid-teens %) and