Insurance: F3/26 Full-year Results Focus: Watch Scale and Sustainability of Non-life Share Buybacks

Research evidence excerpt

Insurance: F3/26 Full-year Results Focus: Watch Scale and Sustainability of Non-life Share Buybacks

Idea

May 12, 2026 06:30 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co., Ltd.+MInsurance | Japan Atsuro Takemura

Equity Analyst

F3/26 Full-year Results Focus: Atsuro.Takemura@morganstanleymufg.comMia Nagasaka +81 3 6836-5429

Mia.Nagasaka@morganstanleymufg.com +81 3 6836-8406

Watch Scale and Sustainability

Insurance

Japan

Industry View Attractiveof Non-life Share Buybacks

We summarize the focus for insurance names at F3/26 full-year

results. Non-life: risk-reward looks somewhat favorable for Tokio

Marine & SOMPO. Lifers: we do not foresee share buybacks at

the start of the new fiscal year, but expect a solid share price

trend in a favorable market.

Tokio Marine Holdings (earnings on May 20; covered by Atsuro Takemura): We

think the upcoming results could be well received depending on the scale and

outlook for share buybacks. For share buybacks at the start of the fiscal year, we

expect ¥390bn, comprising the usual annual level of ¥130bn plus ¥260bn in capital

adjustment. We believe the market would likely respond positively if the figure is

materially above this level, or if the company suggests that capital adjustments will

be sustained. We forecast DPS of ¥244, equivalent to around 55% of IFRS-based

adjusted profit. The company’s adjusted profit guidance will be on an IFRS basis

from this announcement, and we expect it to indicate around ¥890bn. Meanwhile,

we think ESR may have declined by more than 10ppt from 297% as of 2Q, due to

higher interest rates and the execution of bolt-on M&A.

SOMPO Holdings (May 20 at 4:30pm, Atsuro Takemura): We expect the market

to react positively to earnings if additional share buybacks are announced. For share