Nordic Banks: 1Q26: Remain Selective

Research evidence excerpt

Nordic Banks: 1Q26: Remain Selective

Idea

May 12, 2026 03:30 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+MNordic Banks | Europe Gulnara Saitkulova

Equity Analyst

1Q26: Remain Selective Gulnara.Saitkulova@morganstanley.comNed Tidmarsh +44 20 7677-0313

Research Associate

Ned.Tidmarsh@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-0122

Volumes are gradually recovering, but persistent competition

Banks

continues to cap margin upside; costs remain a key focus, Europe

especially for Swedbank and Danske. Danske remains our Industry View Attractive

preferred name, while we stay UW on DNB, Swed & SHB. What’s Changed

Danske Bank (DANSKE.CO) From To

Improving volumes amid persistent margin pressure. Management teams pointed Price Target DKr 350.00 DKr 368.00

to a gradual improvement in volume momentum across the Nordic markets, DNB (DNB.OL) From To

alongside solid trends in the Baltics. However, banks continued to highlight ongoing Price Target NKr 296.00 NKr 276.00

margin pressure. Nordea noted that pressure remains particularly intense in the Svenska Handelsbanken AB

(SHBa.ST) From To

household/retail segment, with competition described as fierce across all four Price Target SKr 128.00 SKr 129.00

markets. Danske also highlighted continued competitive pressure on margins, while

Swedbank (SWEDa.ST) From To

DNB indicated that competition accounted for c. one-third of spread compression in Price Target SKr 300.00 SKr 309.00

Q1. Following the quarterly beat, we have raised our NII forecasts for Danske,

Skandinaviska Enskilda

Nordea and Swedbank by c.1-2%, while lowering DNB by c.1-2%. We remain c.1-2% Banken AB (SEBa.ST) From To

Price Target SKr 179.00 SKr 175.00

below consensus on NII for DNB and SHB, and broadly in line for the rest. Fee