ADECOAGRO S.A.: 1Q26 Earnings: Urea Momentum Set to Improve in 2Q/3Q

Research evidence excerpt

ADECOAGRO S.A.: 1Q26 Earnings: Urea Momentum Set to Improve in 2Q/3Q

Idea

Exhibit 17 : Sugar Quarterly Price (US¢/lb)Mrecovery in yields to 105 tons/ha, and a 96% ethanol mix. x 30 US$/Lb Estimated Sugar Q average Spot

28 4Q23 4Q24 1Q26

• Sugar costs rose to $12.9c/lb on BRL appreciation, with additional 26

pressure from timing and TRS. Production cost ex-D&A increased to 12.9 c/ 22

lb from 11.1 c/lb, mainly reflecting BRL appreciation, earlier agricultural 2018

expenses, lower TRS content per ton of cane, and higher third-party cane 1614 26/27: 65% hedged at 15.7₵/lb

sourcing. 12 -25%

• Adeco maximized ethanol at a 96% mix, as ethanol traded at a premium 2Q22 3Q22 4Q22 1Q23 2Q23 3Q23 4Q23 1Q24 2Q24 3Q24 4Q24 1Q25 2Q25 3Q25 4Q25 2Q26 3Q26 4Q26

to sugar in Mato Grosso do Sul, with hydrous and anhydrous ethanol Source: DataStream, Morgan Stanley Research.

premiums of 32% and 50%, respectively. Ethanol prices were +17.8% YY,

Recent reports:

while energy sales also benefited from higher volumes and spot prices.

Global Agribusiness: Weather Outlook: El Niño

Urea performance in 1Q26: Production reached 278kt (+9.6% YY pro forma),

by Weather Experts (7 May 2026)

helped by more operational days after the 1Q25 flood-related stoppage, while urea

ADECOAGRO S.A.: 4Q25: Short‑Term

sales volumes rose to 174kt (+50.4% YY) and Average Selling price increased to US

Operational Noise, Structural FCF Upside Ahead

$516/t (+16.2% YY), driving urea revenue to US$89.9mn (+74.7% YY). On costs,

(17 Mar 2026)

management highlighted better fixed-cost dilution from higher production and

LatAm Agribusiness: Navigating Sugar Market's

lower gas costs from spot purchases, supporting Fertilizer EBITDA of US$52.5mn;

Downturn: Is the Sweet Spot Ahead? (2 Feb

• Urea price momentum to continue.