Resona Holdings (8308) 4Q results: Announces buyback as expected; profit guidance above expectations

Research evidence excerpt

Resona Holdings (8308) 4Q results: Announces buyback as expected; profit guidance above expectations

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research

13 May 2026

Resona Holdings (8308) Neutral

8308.T, 8308 JP

4Q results: Announces buyback as expected; profit Price (12 May 26):¥2,054

guidance above expectations Price Target (Dec-26):¥2,440

Somewhat positive: 4Q FY2025 net profit fell 17% YoY to ¥36.6 billion, above Japan Equity Research

our estimate of ¥28.4 billion. Gains on stock sales were larger than we

Banks

expected. FY2026 net profit guidance is ¥310 billion (+20% YoY), above our

expectation of ¥300 billion. DPS guidance is ¥37 (our expectation: Takahiro Yano, CFA AC

¥34). Management announced a buyback of up to ¥35 billion, as we expected. The (81-3) 6736-8616

takahiro.yano@jpmorgan.com

details may be largely as expected, but we think the results were strong enough to JPMorgan Securities Japan Co., Ltd.

meet market expectations.

• FY2029 DOE target raised from ~3% to ~3.5%: The total payout ratio target

of 50%+ remains unchanged, but management raised the DOE target, so DPS

guidance was above our expectations. Based on the current guidance, the total

payout ratio is 38%, consisting of a dividend payout ratio of 27% and a share

buyback ratio of 11%. We expect Resona to buy back ¥80 billion of shares in

FY2026, and think expectations have risen for an additional ¥45 billion during

the fiscal year. The buyback period for the current buyback of up to ¥35 billion

is from May 13 to August 7. The capital and business alliance with JR West

(covered by Ryota Himeno) was positioned as one initiative aimed at creating

next-generation growth drivers. We do not expect a material earnings impact

in the near term, but will watch how this initiative develops.