Greggs On the right path for CF & capital return inflection (Part II); reiterate OW

Research evidence excerpt

Greggs On the right path for CF & capital return inflection (Part II); reiterate OW

C A Z E N O V E Europe Equity Research

12 May 2026

Greggs Overweight

GRG.L, GRG LN

On the right path for CF & capital return inflection (Part Price (11 May 26):1,522p

II); reiterate OW Price Target (Dec-27):2,050p

How did we find Greggs’ update? European Food Retail

Setting the foundations for an inflection. Greggs 1P trading was relatively Borja Olcese AC

(34-91) 516-1511

resilient with company-managed LFLs for the first 19 weeks of 2026 at 2.5%, and borja.olcese@jpmorgan.com

3.3% in the most recent 10 weeks - the print was above expectations (JPMe 1.5% J.P. Morgan Securities plc

in 1Q, consensus c2% in FY26) and implied early signs of sequential volume Palak Garg

improvement. Total revenue at £800mn, i.e. +7.5% y/y, was sound and slightly (91-22) 6157-5102

above expectations. Greggs reiterated its 2026 Outlook to hold profits relatively palak.x2.garg@jpmorgan.com

flat (a target which we start to regard as conservative), whilst arguing some marked J.P. Morgan India Private Limited

cadence in the year towards the first half. Mgmt. also admitted to cash flow

Specialist Sales contact details:

momentum building, flagging scope for potential buybacks in due course.

Olivia Petronilho - Specialist Sales -

European Consumer

Recall from FY25 update - Positives already outpacing negatives. There were

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more positives than negatives in Greggs’ FY25 results update and FY26 Outlook. olivia.b.petronilho@jpmorgan.com

Positives included: 1) GRG delivered on 2H25 consensus expectations, beating

Style Exposure

our estimates; 2) GRG reiterated FY26 Outlook (guidance for flat PBT after a 9%

decline in FY25); 3) FCF came in ahead of expectations, with GRG sitting on net