Greggs Resilient performance to provide shares some respite

Research evidence excerpt

Greggs Resilient performance to provide shares some respite

C A Z E N O V E Europe Equity Research

12 May 2026

Greggs Overweight

GRG.L, GRG LN

Resilient performance to give shares some respite Price (11 May 26):1,522p

Price Target (Dec-27):2,050p

Our Take: Greggs 1Q trading was relatively resilient with company-managed European Food Retail

ACLFLs for the first 19 weeks of 2026 at 2.5% and at 3.3% in the most recent 10 weeks. Borja Olcese

The print is above expectations (JPMe 1.5% in 1Q, consensus c2% in FY26), (34-91) 516-1511

although it is admittedly helped by easier comps. Total revenue at £800mn, i.e. borja.olcese@jpmorgan.com

+7.5% y/y, was sound. Greggs reiterated its 2026 Outlook for profits to be at a J.P. Morgan Securities plc

similar underlying levels to 2025, with cost inflation expected to be lower than in Palak Garg

2025. We anticipate the headline LFL outcome may ease some of the share (91-22) 6157-5102

palak.x2.garg@jpmorgan.com

overhang when put in the context of recent underperformance YTD (-9%). We J.P. Morgan India Private Limited

reiterate our OW rating driven by: 1) our proprietary benchmarking analysis

suggesting Greggs is a structural winner (top-class unit economics such as gross Specialist Sales contact details:

profit/sqft, underlying profit/sqft, revenue/operating leases, GP/operating leases); Olivia Petronilho - Specialist Sales -

2) a rather asymmetric risk-reward in the investment case, with the shares trading European Consumer

on trough multiples and the business approaching trough cycle; 3) significant re- (44-20) 3493-3709

rating potential, with catalysts being more resilient-than-expected LFL and olivia.b.petronilho@jpmorgan.com

earnings delivery from here onwards, coupled with an inflection in FCF and capital

returns.