Shionogi (4507) 4Q FY2025 earnings: Missed FY2025 targets; guidance below consensus; zatolmilast failed to meet primary endpoint

Research evidence excerpt

Shionogi (4507) 4Q FY2025 earnings: Missed FY2025 targets; guidance below consensus; zatolmilast failed to meet primary endpoint

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research

12 May 2026

Shionogi (4507)

4Q FY2025 earnings: Missed FY2025 targets; guidance Neutral

below consensus; zatolmilast failed to meet primary 4507.T, 4507 JP

endpoint Price (12 May 26):¥3,171

Price Target (Dec-26):¥3,100

Negative: Results were announced today (May 12) at 15:00, with a briefing Japan Equity Research

scheduled for 13:30 on the 13th. In FY2025, SG&A expenses rose in 4Q, causing

Biotechnology & Pharmaceuticals/

earnings to fall short of guidance. FY2026 guidance calls for significant SG&A Medical Technologies & Services

expenses and operating profit that is below both our forecast and Bloomberg AC Seiji Wakao, Ph.D.

consensus estimate. Moreover, zatolmilast failed to meet its primary endpoint in

(81-3) 6736-8612

Phase 2/3 trials for fragile X syndrome. Given these results, we believe the share seiji.wakao@jpmorgan.com

price will react negatively. As for zatolmilast, it appears that a decision will be Yugo R. Kamimura, Ph.D.

made regarding its future development strategy based on the results of other trials. (81-3) 6736-8635

yugo.kamimura@jpmorgan.com

• Reasons for undershooting FY2025 operating profit guidance: Due to Naoko Saito

negative goodwill arising from M&A activities in 3Q and SG&A expenses (81-3) 6736-8693

increasing by ¥13 billion compared to the plan to prepare for the launch of naoko.saito@jpmorgan.com

Xocova in the U.S., an impairment loss occurred at the end of the fiscal year, JPMorgan Securities Japan Co., Ltd.

resulting in operating profit falling below full-year guidance. Impairment

losses were related to the resiniferatoxin injection (for osteoarthritis of the