Shionogi (4507): Earnings base strengthened via strategic investment; awaiting next growth drivers

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Shionogi (4507): Earnings base strengthened via strategic investment; awaiting next growth drivers

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Shionogi (4507)

Earnings base strengthened via strategic

investment; awaiting next growth drivers

Reiterate Rating: BUY | PO: 3,800 JPY | Price: 2,997 JPY

28 May 2026

Mixed earnings revisions; reiterate Buy with PO of ¥3,800 Equity

We revise our earnings forecasts following 4Q results. We factor Torii Pharmaceutical-

related products and Radicut into domestic revenue, while removing zatolmilast (fragile

X syndrome) and resiniferatoxin (osteoarthritis), for which impairment losses were Key Changes

booked in 4Q, from our revenue forecasts. As a result, we raise our revenue forecasts for (¥) Previous Current

the next five years by 4–9% versus our previous estimates and revise pretax profit 2027E Rev (m) 647,800.0 692,600.0

within a range of ±9%. We reiterate our price objective of ¥3,800 (9.4x EV/EBITDA based 2028E Rev (m) 665,600.0 724,800.0

on FY3/29 forecasts) and our Buy rating. 2029E Rev (m) 671,000.0 719,900.0

2027E EPS 236.80 258.82

Focus on pretax profit due to IFRS accounting changes 2028E EPS 246.44 254.01

In 4Q results, the earnings impact became clear from (1) the acquisition of JT 2029E EPS 242.32 265.05

Pharmaceutical / Torii Pharmaceutical, (2) the acquisition of the edaravone business, and 2027E EBITDA (m) 335,200.0 303,600.0

(3) the additional investment in ViiV. Items (1) and (2) are factors that increase revenue, 2028E EBITDA (m) 346,600.0 290,900.0

while item (3) is expected to be booked as equity-method investment income under 2029E EBITDA (m) 343,600.0 284,600.0

“other income” in FY3/27 guidance and, from FY3/28 onward, after operating profit due 2027E DPS 72.00 76.00

to changes in IFRS 18.