The Mosaic Company Curtailments

Research evidence excerpt

The Mosaic Company Curtailments

J P M O R G A N North America Equity Research

11 May 2026

The Mosaic Company Underweight

MOS, MOS US

Curtailments Price (11 May 26):$21.79

▼Price Target (Dec-26):$19.00

Prior (Dec-26):$24.00

Mosaic is curtailing its phosphate output because the marginal cost of purchasing

raw materials is too high. The company is lowering phosphate production and is Chemicals: Specialty, Commodity,

Agricultural, and Paper & Packagingrelying on the use of lower cost raw materials in inventory for 2Q:26. Mosaic

aspires to purchase raw materials at more affordable prices later in the year, once Jeffrey J. Zekauskas AC

the Strait of Hormuz has reopened. It is possible that Mosaic will find itself in the (1-212) 622-6644

jeffrey.zekauskas@jpmorgan.com

position of absorbing normal overhead costs with little product to sell if the Strait

does not quickly or smoothly or does not entirely reopen. Mosaic earned $60/t in Silke Kueck

(1-212) 622-6503

EBITDA from phosphate in 1Q:26. Spot prices of sulfur are close to $500/t higher silke.x.kueck@jpmorgan.com

at spot, or roughly $200/t per ton of phosphate, and phosphate prices are likely to

Katie Zhang

rise by about $100/t in 2Q:26 sequentially. High sulfur prices are also leading to (1-212) 622-3262

a curtailment of phosphate volumes in Mosaic’s Brazil operations, and we have katie.zhang@jpmchase.com

reduced our estimates for Fertilizantes as well. Potash operations remain in good Lydia Huang

shape. Somewhat higher prices and flattish potash volumes are likely to provide the (1-212) 622-0086

company with its earnings backbone in 2026. lydia.huang@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

• We lowered our EBITDA estimate for Mosaic in 2026 to $1.8b from

$1.96b, and our 2027 forecast is now $1.9b, down from $2.16b.