Mosaic: 1Q26: First Impressions

Research evidence excerpt

Mosaic: 1Q26: First Impressions

Equity Research

Americas Agribusiness

11 May 2026

Mosaic

1Q26: First Impressions

MOS reported weaker adj EBITDA, with GAAP results

impacted by largely non-cash charges. Additionally, MOS has

pulled its FY sales volume guidance for Phosphate due to MOS EQUAL WEIGHT

Americas Agribusiness NEUTRAL

caution from high sulfur costs. Fertilizantes guidance for 2Q Price Target USD 31.00

was also pulled, while Potash FY volume forecasts were Price (08-May-26) USD 22.19

maintained. PotentialSource: Bloomberg,Upside/DownsideBarclays Research +39.7%

Sales were 4% better than our expectations, summing ~$3bn, up mid teens YoY. Phosphate and Americas Agribusiness

Fertilizantes were better than expected, with the former seeing better volumes and the latter Benjamin M. Theurer

reporting stronger pricing. Potash was slightly weaker due to a minor volume shortfall. MOS +52 55 5241 3322

noted that the Riverview, Bartow, and Faustina phosphoric acid production rates were at target benjamin.theurer@barclays.com

in 1Q. Major turnaround was completed at New Wales in March. BCCB, Mexico

Rahi ParikhProfitability was weak, with adj. EBITDA coming in 12% below our model, down ~25% YoY. Adj

+1 212 526 0150

EPS followed, summing $0.05 verses our $0.29 and BBG consensus of $0.23. GAAP results were rahi.parikh@barclays.com

particularly weak, as Mosaic recorded $442mn of charges stemming from the idling of Araxa and BCI, US

Patrocinio. One time asset write offs, severance and contract terminations were within the

Ryan Lavin$350mn – $400mn range mentioned in its April PR about the event, with the total first quarter

+1 212 526 8713

impact now higher as a result of additional period costs for accelerated depreciation and idle ryan.lavin1@barclays.com