SEA Ltd.: What to focus on in Q1 print

Research evidence excerpt

SEA Ltd.: What to focus on in Q1 print

Equity Research

China Technology

11 May 2026

SEA Ltd.

What to focus on in Q1 print

Earnings PreviewDespite some near-term volatility in margins, we continue to

believe management executes well and we are bullish on the

shares. Reiterate OW rating and price target. SE OVERWEIGHT

China Technology POSITIVE

Price Target USD 120.00

SE is reporting on Tues morning. Shopee is likely to be the number 1 focus for investors. We Price (07-May-26) USD 88.64

expect 28% GMV growth in Q1 whereas investors we speak to are above. For the all- Potential Upside/Downside +35.4%

important Shopee EBITDA margins, we expect margins to be largely flat qoq and investors Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research

we speak to are in line. That said, with the lumpiness in investments, particularly around

investments in fulfillment centers, the pace of investments could deviate from the norm in any

given quarter, driving margins above or below the trend line. As a result, Q1 Shopee EBITDA

Jiong Shao, CFA

margins could be up slightly qoq given CNY seasonality in Asia (slower deal pace for fulfillment +1 212 526 5562

centers). Regardless of whether Q1 EBITDA margins are up or down qoq, we don't expect jiong.shao@barclays.com

management to revise its FY26 EBITDA guide, which calls for at least flat in dollars yoy. BCI, US

We are concerned about the Street being too complacent around Monee margins. Monee's Lian Xiu (Roger) Duan

+1 212 526 4633EBITDA margins declined a notable 750 bps in 2025 with a significant qoq drop each

lianxiu.duan@barclays.com

quarter. The decline is in line with management guidance although the rate of the decline last

BCI, US

year was faster than our initial expectations. We believe one of the key drivers for the margin