Sea Ltd (SE US) Buy: 2Q26 preview – EBITDA to remain stable y/y

Research evidence excerpt

Sea Ltd (SE US) Buy: 2Q26 preview – EBITDA to remain stable y/y

book. See page 8 for key risks. 52-WEEK PRICE (USD)

2Q26 preview – EBITDA to remain stable y/y: We forecast consolidated adjusted 220.00

EBITDA to be broadly flat y/y at USD831m, as Shopee EBITDA is expected to 141.50

decline marginally by 2% y/y on continued investments, while Garena bookings are

63.00

likely to remain stable y/y. We expect the loan book to expand 49% y/y to 07/25 12/25 06/26

Target price: 170.00

~USD10.3bn in 2Q26e, driving Monee EBITDA growth of 16% y/y. For Shopee, we High: 196.50 Low: 78.16 Current: 95.83

expect GMV growth of 25% y/y; however, incremental investments are expected to Source: LSEG IBES, HSBC estimates

offset higher take rates and the EBITDA margin is expected to decline y/y to 0.60% of

GMV in 2Q26e (though we expect Shopee EBITDA margin to remain stable q/q). At Piyush Choudhary*, CFA

Head of Asia Telecoms

Garena, bookings should be supported by sustained engagement in Free Fire, The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation

Limited, Singapore Branch

helped by a steady flow of in-game content updates and anime collaborations. Key piyush.choudhary@hsbc.com.sg

areas to watch in the upcoming results: Shopee's GMV growth outlook, margin +65 6658 0607

outlook, Garena’s launch pipeline and upcoming collaborations, and loan-book Rishabh Dhancholia*

Analyst, TMT

growth outlook. HSBC Securities and Capital Markets (India) Private

Limited

Garena bookings supported by higher user engagement and collaborations: rishabh.dhancholia@hsbc.co.in

We expect Garena’s bookings to rise by 9% y/y in 2026e to USD3.2bn, driven by the +91 80 30012841

company’s investments to drive user engagement and enhance in-game content Abhishek Jhanwar* Associate

through IP collaborations.