Walmart Inc.: F1Q27 Preview: Market Share and Underlying Margin Momentum

Research evidence excerpt

Walmart Inc.: F1Q27 Preview: Market Share and Underlying Margin Momentum

Equity Research

11 May 2026

Walmart Inc.

F1Q27 Preview: Market Share and

Underlying Margin Momentum

We expect solid F1Q27 results with modest upside to WMT OVERWEIGHT

NEUTRALpublished estimates, largely driven by accelerating unit share U.S.FoodBroadlines,Retail Hardlines &

gains, progress on key initiatives like delivery and advertising, Price Target USD 132.00

and strong underlying margin momentum despite higher fuel Price (08-May-26) USD 130.43 Potential Upside/Downside +1.2%

Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Researchcosts.

Key message: We don’t expect any major surprises in Q1, with stronger sales and positive U.S. Broadlines, Hardlines & Food

business mix shifts helping offset incremental fuel costs and lingering tariff pressures. Market Retail

Seth Sigmanshare remains the story as we detail in a separate note today here (Where Are Grocery Store

+1 212 526 7417

Shoppers Going? 1Q26 Update). There is a case to not raise guidance given macro uncertainty

seth.sigman@barclays.com

and fuel seemingly staying higher for longer, although the company can mitigate some of that BCI, US

directly while benefiting from underlying strength in the business. We still see the potential for

Oliver Humargin gains to accelerate through the year as the company anniversaries tariffs.

+1 212 526 6180

For Q1 oliver.hu@barclays.com

BCI, US

We see modest upside to our initial $0.64/Bloomberg consensus $0.66 and guidance of Serena E Shalam

$0.63-0.65, on WMT US comps potentially similar to Q4 in the ~4.5% range (vs our initial 3.7%, +1 212 526 3492

consensus +3.9%). That includes traffic growth improving to +3.0% from Q2 +2.6%, supported serena.shalam@barclays.com