Making Grocery Affordable Again (sort of)... Thoughts on Trump Post

Research evidence excerpt

Making Grocery Affordable Again (sort of)... Thoughts on Trump Post

Broadlines & Hardlines

FLASH

FLASH: WALMART (WMT) July 6, 2026

Making Grocery Affordable Again (sort of)... Thoughts on Rating:

Trump Post Outperform

Price:

President Trump on Truth Social reported that Walmart would cut prices, which $110.65

was swiftly followed by a Business Wire release highlighting rollbacks at Walmart Price Target:

$132and Sam's. We view the announcement as part of Walmart's existing plans to % Upside:

lower grocery prices versus an incremental investment (at this point). It does fuel 19.6%

the investor narrative that grocery will get even more competitive in the 2H and

Source: FactSet, Wolfe Research

that a price war could impact industry profits. Priced as of 07/06/26

(-) Price War Narrative Heating Up... With Kroger, Albertsons, Costco, and Dollar

Tree (more visible $1 price points) all being very vocal about price investments, this

announcement will heighten concerns about a price war. We still view this as equal

parts narrative and actual price cuts in the market. Our recent price gap work suggests

Kroger is making some inroads on the most important KVIs. Price investments remain Spencer Hanus

the biggest risk heading into Back-to-School & Holiday 2026. shanus@wolferesearch.com

(646) 582-9344

(+) ...How incremental is this? Not Much So Far. At our recent mgmt meeting, View Spencer’s Research

Walmart had already signaled that they would invest their tariff refunds into the View WMT Model

View Comp Tableconsumables side of the business. To quantify the impact, Walmart is targeting ~$3bn

in direct tariff refunds, with ~$6bn of indirect refunds over the coming quarters. This Sebastian Holtmeier