U.S. Broadlines/Food Retail: Where Are Grocery Store Shoppers Going? 1Q26 Update

Research evidence excerpt

U.S. Broadlines/Food Retail: Where Are Grocery Store Shoppers Going? 1Q26 Update

Equity Research

11 May 2026

U.S. Broadlines/Food Retail

Where Are Grocery Store Shoppers

Going? 1Q26 Update

Our proprietary analysis of wallet share among conventional U.S. Broadlines, Hardlines & Food Retail

grocery shoppers shows WMT gains accelerated, TGT NEUTRAL

inflected positively, specialty, discount, and dollar channels U.S. Broadlines, Hardlines & Food

Retail

gains are positive but decelerated, while the conventional Seth Sigman

grocer channel declined sharply. +1 212 526 7417

seth.sigman@barclays.com

BCI, US

What's incremental: With relatively weak consumable trends and macro uncertainty, incl.

Oliver Hu

SNAP reductions, limited inflation and elevated fuel prices adding to consumer pressure, we +1 212 526 6180

analyze wallet share across the space. Specifically, we focus on the core conventional grocery oliver.hu@barclays.com

store shoppers and changes in their behavior across retailers and channels (Figures 1-2); we BCI, US

identify shoppers that transacted at conventional grocers on the Barclays card at least 20 times Serena E Shalam

in 2023 and were in our panel between 2021-25, and analyze their total spending across related +1 212 526 3492

consumable channels. Our analysis doesn't include Amazon (covered by Ross Sandler) as we are serena.shalam@barclays.com

unable to isolate grocery spend, and results would be skewed by spending in non-grocery, BCI, US

which is a majority of its sales (see our household overlap analysis framing AMZN's evolving role

in grocery). We also don't include warehouse clubs as our data doesn't track that channel as Data Science & Applied AI

Fan Gao, CFA(v)well.

+1 212 526 8404

fan.gao@barclays.com1.1.