InterContinental Hotels Group (1K) | Reduce | Strong momentum despite uncertainties

Research evidence excerpt

InterContinental Hotels Group (1K) | Reduce | Strong momentum despite uncertainties

financial debt (m) 3,800 3,357 2,874

leisure, with resilient business trends across industries and regions supporting a FCF (m) 669 753 837

broad-based recovery in room revenues. EPS adj. and ful. dil. 5.65 6.38 6.97

▪Regional momentum accelerated notably in the US and Greater China, while ConsensusNet dividendEPS 5.682.28 6.462.57 7.362.81

EMEAA remained resilient despite Middle East disruption, supported by strong

FY to 31/12 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E performances across Europe, East Asia and Pacific markets.

P/E adj and ful. dil. 26.3 23.3 21.4

▪Development activity remained robust, with strong net room growth, rising EV/EBITDA 18.3 16.4 15.1

conversions and expanding newer brands such as Garner, Ruby and Noted, EV/EBIT 19.4 17.4 15.9

broadening IHG’s addressable conversion opportunity globally. FCF yield 3.0% 3.5% 3.9%

Dividend yield 1.5% 1.7% 1.9%

Deconstructing the forecasts ND(F+IFRS16)/EBITDA 2.9 2.4 2.0

▪IHG said Q1 validated its growth algorithm, with RevPAR growth, net system Gearing na na na

expansion, margin improvement and buybacks supporting unchanged FY25 ROIC 56.6% 56.3% 55.1%

targets and double-digit adjusted EPS growth expectations. EV/IC 14.5 12.8 11.5

▪For Q2/FY26, management remained cautiously optimistic, expecting global

demand resilience to offset Middle East weakness, while booking trends in May

and June already point to improving EMEAA performance.

▪In the US, IHG believes key 2025 headwinds are easing or stabilising, while strong Julien Richer, CFA

employment, wage growth and investment trends continue supporting travel Equity Research Analyst

demand without visible consumer spending deterioration. +33 1 70 39 74 98

Valuation and investment conclusion