InterContinental Hotels Group (AO) | Reduce | The FIFA World Cup would only be a RevPAR kicker

Research evidence excerpt

InterContinental Hotels Group (AO) | Reduce | The FIFA World Cup would only be a RevPAR kicker

News comment

Release date: 15 June 2026

Julien Richer, CFA

Equity Research Analyst

+33 1 70 39 74 98

jricher@keplercheuvreux.com

ReduceInterContinental Hotels Group

United Kingdom | Travel & leisure MCap: USD24.7bn

Target Price: USD142.00 Bloomberg: IHG LN Reuters: IHG.L

Current Price: USD166.45 Free float 92%

Up/downside: -14.7% Avg. daily volume (USDm) 70.4

YTD abs performance 18.3% Market data: 12 June 2026

52-week high/low (USD) 166.45/108.80

The FIFA World Cup would only be a RevPAR kicker

Key points:

Several press articles pointed to softer-than-expected lodging demand around the FIFA WC, with a limited impact on RevPAR in

the US. STR anticipates a c. 40bps uplift to RevPAR in 2026 (industrywide) with a 180bps impact for host markets.

Hoteliers' comments were more measured. Marriott guides for a +30-35bps global RevPAR impact in 2026, whilst IHG sits within a

+30-80bps Americas expectations. In our view, the earnings leverage is larger for asset-heavy owners than asset-light hoteliers.

For IHG, the World Cup should be treated as a potential RevPAR kicker only. The bigger 2026 drivers remain U.S and Chinese

demand recovery, group strength, low supply growth and net unit growth. Despite a strong Q1 performance, we view the current

28x P/E 26E as demanding, especially in an uncertain economic environment.

The 2026 FIFA World Cup would probably not be the RevPAR growth driver catalyst that many hotel owners hoped for at the start

of the year. Based on recent press articles and industry comments, the event should still be a modest RevPAR tailwind, but the

upside is now concentrated in host-city ADR discipline, late knockout-stage demand and operator revenue-management