Aurubis (1K) | Hold | Market tailwinds (call feedback)

Research evidence excerpt

Aurubis (1K) | Hold | Market tailwinds (call feedback)

Aurubis Hold | Target Price: EUR200.00

Chart 2: Outlook on macro drivers as of 5 February 2026… Chart 3: … improved as of 11 May 2026

Source: Company, Kepler Cheuvreux Source: Company, Kepler Cheuvreux

Main takeaways from the call

Negligible short-term impact from Iran, medium-term opportunity

Management described the direct impact from the Middle East conflict as limited in the short term,

given the group’s minimal exposure to the region on both the sourcing side (no concentrate

exposure and limited scrap sourcing) and the sales side. Indirect effects from higher energy and

freight costs were characterized as “manageable”.

Conversely, the disruption to sulfuric acid supply caused by the conflict, together with constraints

on Iranian cathode exports, is viewed as a medium-term tailwind for the group.

Sulfuric acid tailwind mainly from Q4

Management highlighted that sulfuric acid demand is expected to grow by c.3% annually through

2030, supported by structurally strong demand from fertilizers (45% of Aurubis’ >2Mtpa

production), metal producers (15%), and the chemical industry (40%).

Supply constraints linked to the Middle East conflict, as well as potential export restrictions, could

provide additional support to sulfuric acid prices, which are already at record levels.

In FY 2024/25, sulfuric acid sales contributed EUR125m to gross profit, with the vast majority

flowing directly to the bottom line. Given that around 85% of sulfuric acid volumes are sold under

annual contracts, with the remainder under quarterly or semi-annual agreements, the recent rise

in prices is expected to feed into earnings primarily in Q4 2025/26.

During the call, CFO Steffen Hoffmann indicated that the guidance upgrade embeds an estimated