Aurubis (AO) | Hold | Q3 earnings sequential pick-up to comfort FY guidance (Preview)

Research evidence excerpt

Aurubis (AO) | Hold | Q3 earnings sequential pick-up to comfort FY guidance (Preview)

bt (cash) 337 222 326 357 518 247 271 nm

Source: Company, Visible Alpha, Kepler Cheuvreux

Aurubis will publish its Q3 2025/26 results on 6 August at 07:00 CET, followed by a conference call (time to be confirmed). We

expect another quarter of solid earnings, with adjusted EBT of EUR140m, ahead of the current Visible Alpha consensus of

EUR131m and up from EUR121m in Q2 2025/26.

Q3 should have benefited from the roll-over of higher hedged metal prices, while sulfuric acid prices almost tripled versus Q1

following China's export restrictions, providing a significant tailwind to earnings.

Elsewhere, treatment and refining charges (TC/RCs) remain subdued, although Aurubis' limited exposure to the spot market

should continue to mitigate the impact. In recycling, solid volumes and favourable pricing are likely to have been offset by the

guided EUR 10 m maintenance shutdown at the Lünen plant.

With sulfuric acid prices expected to remain supportive in Q4, we expect management to reiterate its FY 2025/26 guidance. Our

adjusted EBT forecast remains at the top end of the EUR425–525m guidance range, at EUR525m, broadly in line with the Visible

Alpha consensus of EUR518m.

The only caveat could be weaker cash flow generation, reflecting temporary working capital investments related to strategic

project ramp-ups. However, we would view this as a timing effect and do not expect it to jeopardise management's FY 2025/26

target of at least break-even free cash flow.

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