【HYDZ HL】Continued Bullish on Back-end Equipment

English summary

Testing time is rising nonlinearly: if Hopper finished product testing time is set to 1, Blackwell is about 4, and Rubin about 7; system-level testing time rises from 1 to 1.5 and 2.5, and burn-in testing time from Blackwell to Rubin may also double. Combined cost share of finished product, burn-in, and system-level testing rises from 1.9% to 2.5% and 3.3%. Demand is driven by 4 multipliers: transistors, chiplets, HBM, SerDes, and power domains increase, making each chip harder and longer to test; larger packaging, higher power, and finer pitch push up equipment unit prices; higher value per chip and packaging further magnify losses from missed tests and late defect detection. Domestically, 1) benefiting from Tao's Law, packaging complexity is expected to rise further, driving continued acceleration of inflation in 【Testers】> 【Handlers】> 【Probe Cards】; ...