[zx Electric & New Energy] AI Power Supply Weekly Update 20260726

English summary

Overall industry view: Recently, the AI sector has seen significant adjustments. A-share AI power supply related targets essentially lack core first-supplier companies; they can be understood as a catch-up rally for optical or a mapping of overseas power supplies. Against the backdrop of pressure on the global AI industry chain, it is difficult for them to remain unaffected. At the beginning of this month, we tried to adjust our direction and began recommending Siyuan, Huaming, and Hongfa, which are heavily allocated by foreign investors, as well as some gas turbine targets. Among them, we misjudged the gas turbine targets (we did not expect such a deep correction). As AI post-cycle targets, they can rise in a catch-up manner but also fall more. We see a mismatch between AIDC construction and upstream hardware demand. We optimistically believe that ahead-of-schedule orders will not exist in the long term, and power is undervalued over a two-year horizon. But conversely, this also indicates that some hardware segments have bubbles. HVDC and PSU: Google has been actively promoting recently, including 800V-48V on-board power solutions in pre-research, and some supercapacitor cabinets and power cabinets, which are expected to open new markets. We have consistently given PSU a value of about RMB 1/W, and HVDC about RMB 4. After entering Rubin, PSU is expected to rise to RMB 1.5-2/W, and HVDC to RMB 3.5-4/W. ...