The aluminum price drama seems different from what you think

English summary

### The aluminum price drama seems different from what you think Time: 2026-07-31 09:39:12 Content: To be honest, the recent aluminum sector market sentiment is quite contradictory. When it comes to supply, everyone's first reaction is: oh no, Indonesia is aggressively increasing capacity, the Middle East is also repairing, and overseas electrolytic aluminum is about to flood. When it comes to demand, some people start muttering: with domestic real estate in such a state, how can aluminum be any better? As a result, equity assets were sold off collectively, as if the world were about to change tomorrow. But we repeatedly scrutinized the data and feel that the market may be overly pessimistic. It can even be said that there are three key expectation gaps that may be priced completely in reverse. First, everyone thinks bauxite will become cheaper, but we think this is questionable. For a long time, the market has defaulted to a logic: Guinea's minerals keep flowing in, and domestic alumina capacity is frantically moving to the coast, so alumina is bound to be "low-price guaranteed supply," with profits flowing steadily to electrolytic aluminum smelting.…