[Sinolink Auto Xu Huixiong Team] European and US Truck Stocks Hit New Highs, Chinese Heavy Trucks Still in Valuation Trough

English summary

Recently, truck companies such as Daimler Truck, PACCAR, TRATON, and Volvo have hit historical or recent highs. The underlying logic is as follows: 1. Heavy truck industry level: shifting from 'sales recession' to 'order recovery'. FTR data show that North American Class 8 orders reached 30,500 units in June 2026, up 241% YoY and 68% above the average June of the past decade; cumulative orders over the past 12 months were 334,000 units, and remaining 2026 capacity is basically nearly fully booked. Reasons for order growth: 1) Spot and contract freight rates in the US have improved, with industry capacity and driver supply tightening; 2) Fleet replacements have been delayed for several years, with average fleet age rising; 3) Unclear tariffs and EPA policies in 2025 led some purchases to be deferred to 2026; 4) Fleets are hedging against uncertainty of new emissions regulations in 2027; 5) Infrastructure, power grid, and data center investments support construction trucks. 2. EPA 2027: Triggers some pre-buy expectations. ...