At AI Divergence | How to View MLCC Next [Tianfeng Electric New] Meeting Minutes

English summary

Key points of the meeting: 1. Core views and research background. The research team completed a full supply chain survey of MLCC in July (covering original manufacturers, distributors, and supply chain), believing that after the adjustment, the MLCC sector has outstanding valuation cost performance and is a good window for positioning. It opposes rigidly comparing AI with the new energy industry, as there are core differences: · The entire new energy industry chain is basically dominated by China, while only a very few parts of AI are dominated by China. · The core of new energy demand is the penetration rate logic, with relatively strong demand predictability; AI demand has a high ceiling but unclear growth nodes. The current round of AI industry chain-related price increases is essentially inflation brought by industrial upgrading, not simply cyclical price hikes: · From GB300 to advance stocking in August-September and Rubin's volume in Q4, then to subsequent Rubin Ultra and Vera, technological iterations will continuously bring upgrades in related electronic component demand. · The value of related components accounts for an extremely low proportion of total AI hardware costs, and while power increases, the value per token decreases, so it will not affect downstream volume. 2. ...