CSP and FOMC review 0730: AI investment may gradually shift from narrative to fundamentals

English summary

For CSP earnings, the market is still rewarding FCF, but there are signs that future capital expenditure is increasingly shifting off-balance-sheet, possibly increasing the probability of CSPs delivering perfect earnings reports in the future. At the FOMC, Warsh is desperately playing a hawk while underlyingly dovish, but refuses to provide more convincing indicators. Perhaps the market's dealing power will gradually return from the Fed to Trump, looking forward to the signal caller. Following last night, the market is very thirsty for narratives, essentially not believing in the returns on AI capex, so even 2028, or even 2027 capex is not believed. Therefore, everything seems to return to more than a year ago, when cloud capex and fab coWoS production schedules indicated high growth for the next year, but people did not buy it. In the coming period, we may need to track hardware shipments and production schedules to gradually solidify 2027 profits, and then wait for the next narrative to emerge. It should be emphasized that coding was only hotly discussed in March this year as a catalyst for hardware stock gains. ...