[Overseas Computing Power Investment Logic] Update 260729: Before the Deep Market Correction and FOMC Meeting

English summary

Recently, under the influence of macro, geopolitical, leverage and other factors, global AI hardware has been continuously adjusting, starting from Apple's price increases for Mac and other products to Meta's announcement of entering cloud business, and this week the trend has shown accelerating declines. Obviously, the key issue is not the competition landscape, price cuts, or delays that everyone is keen to discuss, but essentially whether AI capex is healthy and sustainable. Behind this are several controversies: 1. AI is too expensive, many companies are starting to control token spending; 2. Coding has a ceiling, so where is the next scenario? 3. Can CSPs make money? Will their profits be completely eroded in front of leading models? In addition, Kimi K3, Chinese models, and Chinese chips have caused the market to perceive the DeepSeek story as a reason for accelerating declines.