A-share Weekly View 20260727

English summary

Last week A-shares stabilized on shrinking volume. Our A-share sentiment index fell to 6% on Monday; historically, after entering a panic zone, the probability of a stage bottom is high, but rebounds are rarely immediate; statistics show T+7 returns recover and T+14 elasticity increases. Tuesday saw tech-led market rebound driven by policy stabilization expectations and ChiNext/STAR ETF inflows, but US-Iran escalation pressured global liquidity; oil returned above $90/barrel, 10-year UST yield broke 4.7%, VIX once exceeded 20, suppressing risk appetite. Overall market saw shrinking volume and faster rotation; resources, power (dividend), power grid, and batteries led. The core issue remains judgment of the "position" of the AI rally. How to interpret high electronic and communication positions in public fund mid-year reports? Wednesday's public fund mid-year report reignited "rebalancing" discussion: electronics and communication combined positions exceed 60%, with relative overweight to CSI 800 at historical extremes, while pharma, staples, home appliances (non-AI core assets) and AI application sectors like media and computers are at lows. ...