Wang Zhifan Team, Guohai Overseas Macro and Commodity Research

English summary

# Federal Reserve FOMC Meeting Commentary 20260730: [FOMC Commentary] The Fed ultimately chose to hold rates unchanged after the market possibly priced in a hike. There were three dissenting votes. Kevin Warsh's press conference provided little information, with ambiguous answers to important questions. He repeatedly emphasized concerns about inflation while leaving room in inflation measurement methods, and avoided commenting on internal Fed views and conflicts. He neither fully explained the reasons for holding rates nor conveyed real expectations for future action. Ultimately, the market priced in that with no short-term policy action (and no explanation), long-term inflation may rise. The yield curve steepened sharply. [Asset Prices] 1. Gold: In the short term, the Fed's inaction (and rumors that Republicans are again considering pushing to raise the debt ceiling) boosted gold. Also, Warsh's chaotic signaling and seemingly inflation-focused but actually equivocal speech made the market price his policy mistakes, which is somewhat positive for gold (i.e., the Fed will not act promptly or even think chaotically).