Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway Tracking Review: Short-to-medium-term Catalysts Continue, High Dividend Cost-effective Choice

English summary

#Cross-line train-km growth remains main driver, focus on domestic demand policy empowerment to expand H2 YoY growth. H1 national railway cumulative passenger volume 2.348 billion (YoY +5.0%), June passenger volume 379 million (YoY +1.6%). We estimate company 1H26 own-line passenger volume/cross-line train-km up 1.6%/8.7% YoY, expect H2 domestic demand existing policies continuous implementation and reserve policies discretionary research to support travel demand, H2 YoY growth expands. #Xiong-Shang opening expected 4Q26 or expand profit growth, we estimate company 2026 net profit could grow ~9% YoY. 2025 Jingfu Anhui achieved net profit 93.95 million yuan, first profit turning positive; 4Q26 Xiong-Shang high-speed rail expected to connect, network synergy induces cross-line traffic, expect Jingfu Anhui medium-term steady-state net profit 2.2-2.9 billion/year. We estimate 2026 company net profit could grow 9% to 14.2 billion, corresponding to current dividend yield ~3.2%. ...