Jiayou International Tracking Comment: Short-haul Transport Prosperity Supports Earnings Recovery, 27E Dividend Yield & Profit Growth Annualized Return or 20%+

English summary

[Rose]# Weekly short-haul freight rates +33% YoY plus dividend style switch driving intraday valuation recovery. For the week of 7.25, China-Mongolia short-haul freight rates/daily coal customs clearance volume +33.3%/+39.8% YoY. Short-haul freight rates rose to RMB 80/ton, and continued customs clearance volume growth may directly benefit the company's China-Mongolia cross-border logistics business; today DCE coking coal rose 0.8%, ICE Brent rose 3.3%, plus dividend style switch forming an overall trading catalyst, intraday valuation recovery of 3%+. [Rose]# Supply constraints and coking enterprises' rigid demand may form fundamental support, and port price year-on-year improvement is highly certain. For the week of 7.25, Ganqimaodu coking fine coal +14% YoY. According to China Coal Resources Network, on July 24, 53 coking coal mines in Shanxi (Changzhi/Taiyuan/Jinzhong/Lüliang/Linfen five cities) stopped production, involving 61.9 million tons of capacity. Shanxi coal mine supply may continue to be tight. Meanwhile, coking coal inventory on the demand side is mostly at medium-low levels, and coking coal procurement still has rigid demand; this is likely to form phased support for short-term prices, and the certainty of port price year-on-year improvement is high.…