【Raw Milk Procurement | Update】Milk Price Inflection Point Has Arrived; Dairy Companies Proactively Prepare for Potential Milk Shortage (2026-7-28)

English summary

Milk Price Trend Outlook: Bulk milk prices rose earlier in July, about one month earlier than usual (early September), with relatively larger gains and regional divergence: #North China around RMB 3.5-3.6/kg, Ningxia around RMB 3.2-3.3/kg, Hohhot's premium over contract milk price is smaller. Prices are expected to continue rising; with only about one month to Mid-Autumn Festival stockpiling, downstream is preparing early for short-term milk shortages, so bulk milk prices are expected to have a more pronounced impact on cooperative farms (higher than contract prices). #Social farms' herd inventory continues to decline; those with yield above 38 kg are basically profitable, while low-efficiency farms with yield as low as 32-33 kg (about 10%) may continue to exit due to insufficient funds and silage storage difficulties. In addition, domestic whole milk powder prices rose with international prices in 2026 Q2, currently around RMB 28,000/ton, with production cost around RMB 27,000/ton, achieving standalone profitability. Changes in Dairy Companies' Milk Procurement Strategy: Leading dairy companies adjusted strategy in 2026 Q2, changing the previous quota policy, basically purchasing all milk from cooperative farms, reducing bulk milk outflow. ...