Deep! [Soochow Electric New Energy] PV industry strategy report: industry continues to bottom out, supply side awaits optimization

English summary

# Demand: Overseas installations are rising steadily, while domestic installations decline drag down global total; global installations are expected to recover in 2027. In the first six months of 2026, domestic installations were 72GW, down 66% YoY, and full-year is expected to fall to 200GW, but after stabilizing, it is expected to maintain steady development. In overseas markets, new installations in the U.S./Europe in 2026 are expected to be 49/70GW, up 14%/8% YoY, with continued steady growth thereafter. Emerging markets contribute more incremental growth, especially driven by project plans in the Middle East and India, expected to reach 35/45GW in 2026, +25%/22% YoY. We expect global new PV installations of 547GW in 2026, down 11% YoY, due to the phased decline in domestic installations. In 2027, global new PV installations are expected to resume growth. # Supply: Overcapacity continues, and profit pressure drives consolidation. 1) Capacity remains significantly excessive, and demand growth is slowing. 2) Profits are still at the bottom, and recovery relies on supply-side optimization. 3) Supply side has made progress, and energy efficiency standards accelerate exit of backward capacity. # Industry chain: Capacity consolidation accelerates, price space recovers;…