【招商通信】How to View Optical Modules After Significant Adjustment - 260728

English summary

The optical communications sector saw a significant adjustment today, and the market is concerned about the annual price decline of optical modules and even the earnings expectations of leading optical module companies. Based on recent industry research, we offer the following understanding: [Regarding Supply-Demand Pattern] 1. Based on communications with industry leaders and DSP material tracking, demand from North American customers alone for 800G/1.6T optical modules in 2027 has reached 90-100 million units (compared with estimated actual deliveries to North American customers in 2026: 50-60 million 800G and 20-24 million 1.6T), with a clear trend of customer diversification. 2. The emergence of new suppliers in optical modules is essentially a supply assurance measure by customers to cope with sharply increased demand. At the same time, for at least the current and next two years, the delivery bottleneck for optical modules lies in materials (DSP, optical chips, mSAP, etc.), and core materials are in short supply. The level of material preparedness determines the delivery ceiling for optical module manufacturers. Currently, leading optical module companies are also stocking materials for NPO in advance. 3. ...