Many people still ask about comparing AI to the 2021 new energy peak. Conclusion first: The two industries have too many differences. In research, # don't apply a static approach.

English summary

CATL's peak market cap in 2021 was 1.6 trillion CNY, corresponding to the market's then forecast of 25 billion CNY profit for 2022, reaching 65x PE; it forecast 65-75 billion CNY profit for 2025, corresponding to 20-25x PE (medium-term valuation method). In hindsight, the researchers' profit forecasts were quite accurate. In 2022, the earnings beat, ending with 30 billion CNY profit; in 2025, non-GAAP was 65 billion and net profit attributable to parent was 72 billion, with little difference. Therefore, the peak of CATL in 2021 # was essentially due to overdrawing too much valuation in advance, not concerns about industry growth rate. Objectively speaking, in 2021, new energy global penetration was 10%, domestic penetration was 16%. No matter how many "smart people," it was impossible to declare industry peak at 10% penetration. In contrast, the current overseas chain's problem is whether it has overdraw valuations in advance? For capex cycle stocks plus the lessons from new energy that year, the secondary market has always been restrained in valuations (using Lead Intelligent as an example, it reached the next year's 50x PE at the time).…