TFHK Commentary: How Should We Understand the Current Correction in AI Hardware?

English summary

The market is always right. Stock price movements inevitably reflect new factors currently being digested by the market. Even if we are long-term bullish on the AI industry, we need to understand the core reasons behind this correction in AI semiconductor stocks. The current market is strikingly similar to last autumn and winter. After OpenAI completed a large financing round, the industry outlook was bright, but stock prices continued to consolidate sideways. Market participants discuss capex, ROI, valuations, and financing every day—just as they are doing now. The conclusions from this quarter's earnings are still very optimistic. Google Cloud Platform (GCP) grew 80%, validating the returns on cloud investment; Intel's results significantly beat expectations; ASML, TSMC, and Intel all raised order or capex guidance. It can be inferred that these companies also see extremely strong downstream market forecasts, which gives even the most conservative players in the supply chain the confidence to make bold investments. If this information were released in May or June, semiconductor stocks would almost certainly have surged significantly.…