PCB Upstream: Overshooting Is Opportunity; Price Hikes and Technology Upgrades Resonate to Launch Q3 Offensive [Northeast Securities Computer]

English summary

Core logic: Stock prices have overcorrected to pre-Q2 rally levels, yet fundamentals are accelerating beyond expectations. The PCB upstream sector has undergone a deep correction, with some stocks falling back to Q2 starting points, as if price increases never happened. But the reality is: the price hike logic has shifted from cyclical recovery to deep-water driven by AI technology iteration, and Q3 will see a double hit from fundamentals and technology implementation. # Why is the price hike chain sustainable? # CSP giants' capex remains unabated & ROI is still improving: The four major overseas cloud vendors' investment in AI infrastructure is unchanged, while ROI continues to rise. # Technology iteration drives price increases: Next-gen chips have nearly stringent requirements for signal transmission loss, forcing board material upgrades. In 2H, as the Rubin-related supply chain enters material locking and gradual volume ramping, CCL upstream companies are expected to see both volume and price rise. # What else to watch? The mSAP segment is similar, essentially board factory upgrades; we favor HDI and mSAP advancing in tandem in 2027. ...