Whey Protein Special Topic: Prosperity Rises Beyond Expectations, Focus on Domestic Protein Opportunities

English summary

Whey protein prices have risen sharply, and overseas related targets have benefited with share price gains. Over the past 2 years, the price of concentrated whey protein WPC80 has risen from ~60,000 yuan/ton in 2023Q3 to 200,000 yuan/ton in March 2026, a cumulative increase of 230%+, and remains at high levels. Japan's Morinaga Milk and Ireland's Glanbia have considerable whey protein capacity and have performed well in share prices benefiting from this whey protein up-cycle. Supply and demand resonate at the same frequency, causing whey protein prices to soar. On the demand side, there are catalysts such as booming sports nutrition demand, rapid penetration of protein functional foods, low-allergen formula trends in infant formula, and demand from GLP-1 weight-loss drug users. On the supply side, there are constraints: whey protein is a by-product of cheese. Since cheese capacity is not expanded due to stable downstream demand, whey protein capacity cannot be expanded either. At the same time, all whey product prices are currently rising, so whey processing plants are shifting from low-profit product processing to high-profit product processing, squeezing and diverting capacity, further amplifying supply-side problems. Domestic dairy companies' capacity layout for whey protein is still in the early stage.…