AI Resin: Q3 Marks an Important Inflection Point for Deliveries; Favor Leaders and Focus on Margins

English summary

# Industry supply-demand contradictions intensify; terminals like Rubin start shipping/upgrading in Q3, supporting strong resin demand. According to our estimates, the supply-demand gap contradictions for polyphenylene ether resin and hydrocarbon resin will intensify in 26H2-27 and 27H2-28, respectively. # Q3 is a period of intensive marginal capacity release = leaders begin performance delivery. In Q2, Dongcai / Shengquan faced capacity bottlenecks and ran at full utilization, leaving overflow demand unmet. Entering Q3, new capacity is about to be released, and monthly output value may start a high-frequency growth curve. # After adjustment, both have bottomed - risk-reward ratio is appropriate. # Dongcai Technology: Meishan factory started ignition and trial production last week; # production is expected to reach full capacity as early as August. After full commissioning, # monthly output value elasticity will increase from 1e to 5-6 times, and if Meishan utilization reaches 50%, second-phase construction will commence, with high-end product capacity potentially still having doubling space. # Shengquan Group: In September-October, it may add another 2,000 tons of polyphenylene ether capacity; horizontal customer expansion is progressing rapidly, # and marginal orders from overseas customers may start in Q3. Marginal price increases have been passed on to all customers.…