[Cinda Consumer] Laopu Gold 26H1 Preview Express

English summary

Financial performance: The company released its 2026H1 performance forecast, expecting revenue of 19.80-20.45 billion yuan (YoY +60%~66%) and adjusted net profit of 4.31-4.36 billion yuan (YoY +83%~85%). Based on 26Q1 data and taking the midpoint estimate (may have errors, for trend reference only), #26Q2 revenue declined by 35%~40% YoY, net profit declined by about 25%-35%, and adjusted net margin was about 20%+. Data interpretation: Gold prices fell in 26Q2, and the company adhered to its consistent pricing strategy. Possibly due to reduced cost-performance advantage, terminal sales cooled down. #Key offline channels represented by SKP and the online Tmall flagship store both saw significant declines in sales, and sales in other business districts also fell. In addition, the company's store expansion in 26 is steady, with limited new stores, mainly focusing on optimizing existing stores. In terms of profitability, we expect 26Q2 gross margin to be above 45%, but due to intensified competition leading to increased marketing activities and same-store decline dragging operating leverage, net margin improvement is limited. ...